Two weeks to go until the primary election in Michigan and the biggest race is anything but settled.
A new poll from the Detroit News and WDIV in Detroit shows the new leader in the race is west Michigan businesswoman Tudor Dixon. The poll also shows for every supporter she has, two are undecided.
“We have the most uncertain and most undecided Michigan GOP gubernatorial primary,” said John Sellek, political strategist and founder of Harbor Strategics.
The poll shows Dixon has taken the lead in the race, but not by much. Dixon has 19%, businessman Kevin Rinke at 15%, real estate broker Ryan Kelley at 13% and chiropractor Garrett Soldano at 12%.
“19, 17, 15, these are really low numbers and undecided is off the charts,” said Sellek.
With the leader at 19%, undecided voters are twice that at 38%. That’s lot of votes up for grabs with two weeks to go.
“It looks like Dixon is the only one with some kind of momentum carrying her forward,” said Sellek.
That’s mainly because of her endorsements and also a reason Rinke is in second. These are the big money candidates, Dixon by donors and Rinke on his own.
“Kevin Rinke has spent three times as much as the committees who are supporting Tudor Dixon,” said Sellek. “He still has never been in first place in any of these polls.”
There is a wild card that can flip everything. The poll also shows 63% of voters will be influenced by a Donald Trump endorsement.
“The other campaigns know that a Trump endorsement comes, they could essentially be dead in the water,” said Sellek. “They are doing everything they can to sow seeds of doubt. Not only in the voters’ mind but, frankly, I think that ad from Rinke is meant for an audience of one, Donald Trump.”
The winner may not break 30% of the votes, but whoever it is needs to collect 100% of the party to win in November.
“The minute the campaign can turn toward Joe Biden and, by extension, Gretchen Whitmer ,there’s going to be a lot of unity really fast,” said Sellek, “A common enemy brings friends and enemies together alike, when they are on the attack.”