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SOURCE Bank of the West
Impact on Economic Activity, Jobs and Tax Revenues Expected to be Modest
SAN FRANCISCO, Feb. 13, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Bank of the West Chief Economist, Scott Anderson, PhD, today issued a special report measuring how the end of Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) program will impact California's economy over the short- and longer-term.
Anderson's research found that California, despite having a higher share of long-term unemployed, will be measurably impacted – yet not catastrophically so – over the next two years. In addition, according to Anderson, the economic impacts will be lower than estimates provided by the joint Labor Department and Council of Economic Advisors study. Anderson estimates:
For perspective, Anderson noted that California created 235,700 net new jobs in 2013, a 1.6% increase in non-farm payrolls. A loss of a net 29,700 jobs would have reduced the state's job growth by 0.2 percentage points. The loss of $4.3 billion in state output would also subtract about 0.2 percentage points from California's Gross State Product growth.
"In short, our estimates for the economic impact on California are at the lower end of the U.S. estimates and imply the national estimates of the EUC impacts might be too high," Anderson noted.
About Bank of the West:
Founded in 1874, $65 billion-asset Bank of the West (www.bankofthewest.com), member FDIC and equal housing lender, offers a wide range of personal, commercial, wealth management and international banking services. The bank operates more than 600 retail and commercial banking locations in 19 Western and Midwestern states. Bank of the West is a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, which has a presence in 80 countries with nearly 200,000 employees.
The full report along with its methodology can be found here – http://gowe.st/Mh58NF.
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